Fifth Straight Hold Expected: Bank of Canada to Maintain 2.25% as Geopolitical Fog Thickens

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25 per cent for the fifth consecutive time when it meets this Wednesday, according to financial markets pricing in a 95 per cent probability of no change. Governor Tiff Macklem has signaled that "monetary policy may need to be nimble" as the central bank navigates conflicting economic signals, including a technical recession with two consecutive quarterly GDP contractions and inflation accelerating to 2.8 per cent in April—the fastest pace in nearly two years—driven largely by the war in Iran's impact on energy prices.