May's Housing Rebound Is Real—But the Floor Was Lower Than You Think
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Daniel Foch's June 16 analysis in Real Estate Magazine identifies tangible behavioral shifts signaling a potential market turn. The quiet buyer is requesting second showings rather than ghosting after the first visit. Listing agents report fewer silent phone lines following open houses, indicating renewed inquiry volume. Most notably, sellers who previously anchored expectations to 2022 peak pricing are now asking where legitimate offers might actually land, suggesting a capitulation on unrealistic expectations.
This behavioral texture arrives during May's traditional seasonal uptick. Thirty years of Canadian housing data demonstrates that sales volumes almost invariably rise from April to May, making the monthly gain statistically expected rather than extraordinary. However, Foch argues that the current rebound feels distinct because it emerges from an exceptionally weak foundation. The starting point was not merely soft—it was historically depressed—meaning the percentage gains look dramatic while absolute activity remains constrained.
Question
If sales are rising but from a historically low base, how should buyers interpret whether this is a genuine window of opportunity or just seasonal noise before further correction?
Editor's Comment
From a senior Greater Vancouver agent's perspective, this behavioral shift feels familiar—it's how recoveries begin, not with price spikes but with phone calls returning. The key is recognizing that May's bounce is mechanical seasonality meeting genuine exhaustion. Buyers who waited two years for "the bottom" are realizing that perfect timing is less important than sustainable payments. Sellers are learning that 2022 was an anomaly, not a benchmark. Neither side should overreact to percentage gains from a low base. Watch July: if activity holds when spring fever fades, we'll know this has legs.